Host heterogeneity and epistasis explain punctuated evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

Publication Year
2023

Type

Journal Article
Abstract

Identifying drivers of viral diversity is key to understanding the evolutionary as well as epidemiological dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using rich viral genomic data sets, we show that periods of steadily rising diversity have been punctuated by sudden, enormous increases followed by similarly abrupt collapses of diversity. We introduce a mechanistic model of saltational evolution with epistasis and demonstrate that these features parsimoniously account for the observed temporal dynamics of inter-genomic diversity. Our results provide support for recent proposals that saltational evolution may be a signature feature of SARS-CoV-2, allowing the pathogen to more readily evolve highly transmissible variants. These findings lend theoretical support to a heightened awareness of biological contexts where increased diversification may occur. They also underline the power of pathogen genomics and other surveillance streams in clarifying the phylodynamics of emerging and endemic infections. In public health terms, our results further underline the importance of equitable distribution of up-to-date vaccines.

Journal
PLoS computational biology
Volume
19
Issue
2
Pages
e1010896
Date Published
02/2023
ISSN Number
1553-7358
Alternate Journal
PLoS Comput Biol
PMCID
PMC9974118
PMID
36791146