Fundamental bound on epidemic overshoot in the SIR model.
Publication Year
2023
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We derive an exact upper bound on the epidemic overshoot for the Kermack-McKendrick SIR model. This maximal overshoot value of 0.2984 · · · occurs at [Formula: see text]. In considering the utility of the notion of overshoot, a rudimentary analysis of data from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Manaus, Brazil highlights the public health hazard posed by overshoot for epidemics with near 2. Using the general analysis framework presented within, we then consider more complex SIR models that incorporate vaccination.
Keywords
Journal
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
Volume
20
Issue
209
Pages
20230322
Date Published
12/2023
ISSN Number
1742-5662
Alternate Journal
J R Soc Interface
PMCID
PMC10698490
PMID
38053384