Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics.
Publication Year
2004
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume
101
Issue
48
Pages
16915-6
Date Published
11/2004
ISSN Number
0027-8424
Alternate Journal
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
PMCID
PMC534740
PMID
15557003