Cascading regime shifts within and across scales.

Publication Year
2018

Type

Journal Article
Abstract

Regime shifts are large, abrupt, and persistent critical transitions in the function and structure of ecosystems. Yet, it is unknown how these transitions will interact, whether the occurrence of one will increase the likelihood of another or simply correlate at distant places. We explored two types of cascading effects: Domino effects create one-way dependencies, whereas hidden feedbacks produce two-way interactions. We compare them with the control case of driver sharing, which can induce correlations. Using 30 regime shifts described as networks, we show that 45% of regime shift pairwise combinations present at least one plausible structural interdependence. The likelihood of cascading effects depends on cross-scale interactions but differs for each type. Management of regime shifts should account for potential connections.

Journal
Science (New York, N.Y.)
Volume
362
Issue
6421
Pages
1379-1383
Date Published
12/2018
ISSN Number
1095-9203
Alternate Journal
Science
PMID
30573623